PATTERN Risk Assessment

PATTERN, short for the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs, is the risk and needs assessment the Federal Bureau of Prisons uses to score nearly every person entering federal custody, sorting them into a minimum, low, medium, or high risk category that affects how quickly they can earn First Step Act time credits and whether those credits can be applied toward earlier release into the community.

Overview

Congress required the tool as part of the First Step Act. Section 101 of the Act directed the Department of Justice to develop a risk and needs assessment system, and to periodically review and update it, that could be applied consistently across the federal prison population. The Department published the initial methodology for developing the tool in July 2019, and the Bureau has revised the underlying instrument multiple times since; the version in current use is PATTERN 1.3.

The Bureau states that in building the current version of the tool, emphasis was placed on a system that accurately measures how a person changes during incarceration and gives them real opportunities to lower their risk score through periodic reassessment, rather than a static score fixed at intake. The Bureau publishes separate scoring tools for men and women, along with a list of offense codes that affect scoring for violent offenses and published cut points that translate a raw score into the minimum, low, medium, or high category.

What the Score Determines

A PATTERN score has two separate effects on a person's path through the system, both grounded in the First Step Act's earned time credit provisions at 18 U.S.C. § 3632. First, it sets the rate at which someone earns credit for approved programming: a person assessed at minimum or low risk on two consecutive assessments earns credit at 15 days for every 30 days of programming, compared with 10 days for every 30 days at the standard rate. Second, it gates whether accumulated credit can actually be applied toward earlier placement in a Residential Reentry Center or home confinement. Generally, a person needs a minimum or low risk score on the two most recent reviews to apply credits toward prerelease custody; someone assessed at medium or high risk keeps earning credit but cannot use it toward earlier community placement until the score drops, unless a warden grants an individualized exception.

Reassessment and Score Movement

PATTERN is not a one-time label. The Bureau reassesses people periodically, and the score can move in either direction: completing programming, education, and maintaining a clean disciplinary record tend to lower a score over time, while a serious disciplinary infraction can raise it. Because eligibility to apply earned time credits toward prerelease custody depends on the two most recent assessments rather than a single snapshot, a person's practical release timeline can shift as their score is periodically reassessed throughout the sentence.

Relationship to Security Level and Programming

PATTERN risk category is a distinct concept from a person's security level. Security level determines which type of institution someone is designated to, based on factors under 18 U.S.C. § 3621(b) such as offense severity and criminal history; PATTERN risk category is specifically about First Step Act earned time credit eligibility and the likelihood of reoffending. The two can move independently: a person can be housed at a low-security institution while still carrying a medium PATTERN score, or vice versa, depending on the specific factors each system weighs.

A lower PATTERN score can also affect access to certain programming incentives, since programs such as the Residential Drug Abuse Program (RDAP) and other productive activities that generate earned time credit are more consequential for someone who can actually apply that credit toward earlier release.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What does PATTERN stand for?

PATTERN stands for the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs. It is the risk and needs assessment tool the First Step Act required the Department of Justice to develop, and the Bureau of Prisons applies it to score nearly every person in federal custody.

Q: What are the PATTERN risk categories?

PATTERN sorts people into four categories: minimum, low, medium, or high risk. The category is based on a scored assessment using published cut points, with separate versions of the tool for men and women.

Q: How does a PATTERN score affect First Step Act credits?

It sets the earning rate, 15 days of credit for every 30 days of programming at minimum or low risk on two consecutive assessments, versus 10 days for every 30 days otherwise, and it gates whether accumulated credit can be applied toward earlier placement in a halfway house or home confinement.

Q: Can a PATTERN score change over time?

Yes. The Bureau reassesses people periodically. Completing programming and maintaining good conduct tend to lower a score, while serious disciplinary infractions can raise it, and eligibility to apply earned credits depends on the two most recent assessments.

Q: Is PATTERN the same as a security classification?

No. Security level determines which type of institution a person is designated to under 18 U.S.C. § 3621(b). PATTERN is a separate score focused specifically on First Step Act earned time credit eligibility and recidivism risk, and the two do not always move together.